Stygius

Hearts and minds in the Philippines

Interesting article flagged by EagleSpeak. (Balikitan is an annual joint exercise between the United State and the Philippines, whose constitution bars a permanent presence by foreing military. Yet a constantly present US unconventional force helps combat the transnational jihadist networks that operate in Southeast Asia.)

Stars and Stripes on US counterinsurgency tactics in the southern Philippines:

After Balikatan training between U.S. and Philippine troops ended March 5, a small group of mostly U.S. special forces remained in the country under the umbrella Joint Special Operations Task Force — Philippines.

The task force has maintained a continuous presence in the southern Philippines since July 2002, with people rotating in and out about every six months, said Army Lt. Col. Mark Zimmer, task force spokesman.

The mission is counterterrorism.

More specifically, the mission is denial of sanctuary, something which requires a whole host of proactive strategies; most of them aiming toward not alienating the locals, which in the short term denies the real enemy breathing space, thus creating conditions for eventually coopting the populace towards killing off that enemy. Voila!

To this point, the short JFQ paper, "The Military Utility of Understanding Adversary Culture" [pdf] is helpful.

This is important, since al-Qaeda affiliates have long targeted the southern islands -- which are predominantly Muslim, and "overseen" by a predominantly Catholic government in Manila -- for operations. The incompetent central government has at times either brutalized the population, or else neglected it such that it encourages the kind of statelessness in which terrorist networks thrive politically; hence, the worst of both worlds. Last year,  the US charge d'affaires last year even described -- rather haplessly -- the island of Mindanao as a "new Mecca for terrorism."

While Stars and Stripes is a strange beast journalistically (an "editorially independent" entity of the DOD), it is satisfying that the paper lauds this kind of work. In a way, it helps that this facet of the "war on terrorism," or whatever you want to call it, is below the radar in the US. Oddly, that seems to be contributing towards the likelihood of success in the Philippines, since keeping the civilian leadership from devoting it much attention decreases the probability they'll screw it up.

Indonesia terror maestro killed

From the Associated Press:

One of Asia's most wanted terrorists was staying in a safe house packed with London-style backpack bombs when he was killed, police said Thursday, triggering speculation he was planning more terror strikes.

Azahari bin Husin's death is another major blow to the al-Qaida-linked Jemaah Islamiyah, but at least four other senior members of the group remain on the run, security analysts said.

The Afghan-trained explosives expert was accused of making the bombs used in the 2002 Bali nightclub attacks and at least three other deadly blasts in Indonesia, and handing down his skills to young recruits, police say.

Jemaah Islamiyah resurgent

At Counterterrorism, Zachary Abuza discusses Jemaah Islamiyah's beginning resurgence in Southeast Asia:

JI has been significantly degraded in terms of its capability and manpower since October 2001. There have been more than 300 arrests, including most of its senior leaders and founding members. JI's leadership structure, its shura and regional (mantiqi) structure no longer seem to be in place. What is left is a looser organization, autonomous cells, with little if any centralized command and control. There is considerable bomb-making expertise and a cadre of Afghan trained leaders still at large.

JI has not thrown in the towel, and the path to its regrouping and expansion lies less in bombing western targets and more through provoking sectarian conflict.

Abuza details JI involvement in three countries: Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines.

In the Philippines, for instance, Jemaah Islamiyah is melding with the Abu Sayyaf Group, which is itself bouncing back after joint US-Filippino counterterrorist operations dealt the group severe setbacks. According to Abuza, JI and ASG are calling for an anti-Christian jihad, and are competing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front for influence in the southern Philippines. (Stephen Ulph at Jamestown Foundation has more on the JI-ASG link.)

Recently, Indonesia was rumored to be on the verge of outlawing JI, but on March 23 denied this.

Wikipedia has a JI article, but I think it's lousy. However, Rotten.com has a good backgrounder. (Actually, check out Rotten.com's terrorist org index as well.)

Lastly, regarding Zachary Abuza, Counterterrorism tells us he's "authored two studies for the National Bureau of Asian Research, entitled "Funding Terrorism in Southeast Asia: The Financial Network of Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiya," (2003)[PDF] and "Muslims, Politics and Violence in Indonesia," (2004) [PDF].

Abuza also wrote Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror (2003), which I haven't read.

Navy sending Congress 30-yr plan

From EagleSpeak:

Navy to send Congress 30-year shipbuilding plan

The Navy is sending Congress a long overdue, 30-year shipbuilding plan that projects a fleet that could range from 260 to 325 ships, the service's top acquisition official said Wednesday.

See this and this.

It's past time for a serious expansion of the US Navy's capabilities, in terms of both quantity and quality. The USN is the power of the United States in Asia. It is the guarantator of regional stability in East Asia. Our gains in the Persian Gulf will be mitigated if the US doesn't remain the dominant naval power in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Moderating China's behavior, bringing it into the "family of nations" and all of that slogany stuff, countering its attempt to undermine US relations in the region, and securing a non-nuclear Japan require making China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil the United States' ultimate security trump card.

China must never conceive that it can ever have energy security except at the discretion of the United States.

Australian election...

Following up on yesterday's post on the Jakarta bombing of Australia's embassy to Indonesia, the Christian Science Monitor has one of their excellent media roundups of how the bombing is shaping the runup to Austalia's October 9 election. Also, Indonesian authorities have issued information on 10 people wanted in connection with the bombing, as well as two Malaysians who apparently masterminded the affair. As we see with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines recently, other countries are finally beginning to take terrorism seriously as its own serious problem, rather than as a public relations problem. There's nothing like political survival to motivate, is there?

Australian election analysts believe the election could go both ways, with a Labour Party able and willing to link the embassy attack to Iraq, while PM Martin seems fairly capable of dealing with the fatuousness of such rationalizations. Austalia, as a serious regional power in Southeast Asia, would be attacked by JI whatever it did, especially if Austalia desired to have any kind of relations with Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. The idea that Iraq is the motivator of these kinds of attacks--rather than an excuse for them--is ludicrous, and for opposition members to be maintaining it is not only disingenuous but dangerous and irresponsible.

Labour's Latham seems to have done well against PM Martin in their only debate, according to Bloomberg. If Martin does win, his majority will probably be decreased. But we are also at the sticky dilemma where if Latham's Labour wins, international jihadists will see is as a victory for themselves, further validating the strategy of pre-election attacks that they regard as successful for them in Spain last March.

Jakarta bombing & Australia...

Indonesian police, in the wake of the suicide bombing of Australia's embassy in Jakarta, are apparently "re-enacting" the attack for some reason. Indonesia's presidential election is not until 20 September, and analysts are saying that it probably won't launch a major counter-terrorist operation against Jemaah Islamiah (JI) until then. Something tells me this re-enactment is probably busy work in anticipation of any diplomatic pressure from Australia, although their police at least have named the suspected organizers.

After the Bali bombings, which mostly killed Australian tourists, many Australians still felt comfortable thinking that this fact was incidental; that JI was mainly oriented against American and British tourists. The deliberate targeting of the Australian embassy should dispel any such illusions if they remain. Australia is clearly JI's number one Western enemy. The growing pressure on Australia to take a more activist role in Southeast Asia will accelerate attacks on it even more. My hope is that Australia will learn from the US's relative ambivalence after al-Qaeda's attacks on our African embassies in 1998, and stop at nothing to extract some retribution for them.

Just a little bit ago, JI's leader, Abu Bakar Bashir (who is in Indonesia custody already), has apparently condemned the embassy attack (with the convoluted narcissism that it is a plot to keep him in prison), while at the same time using it as an opportunity to threaten Australia:

The cleric accused of leading the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) group said the Australian Government should pull the nation's troops out of Iraq.

Abu Bakar Bashir, who condemned the suicide bomb attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta, described the invasion of Iraq as a mistake.

In an interview on the SBS program Insight, Bashir also said Australia should not fight Islam.

"John Howard is in deep trouble," he said. "He's connected to George Bush.

"I think America's invasion of Iraq is a mistake. If Australia defends America that is also a mistake. That's my opinion. So it would be better if Australian troops pulled out."

This attack is probably mimicking the March 11 Madrid attacks, by trying to create domestic pressure on governments in a way that drives a wedge between the US and its allies (the terrorists' Iraq rationale is only instrumental; it would merely be a different rationale if Australia wasn't in Iraq). I highly doubt Australia will go Spain's route, however.

It is only a matter of time before JI grows ever bolder and attempts to launch a spectacular attack within Australia itself. The only proper approach to this is for the Australian government to clearly communicate to the public that they regard such an embassy attack as if it was on Australian territory, that attacks on Australian interests and citizens elsewhere will be regarded as if they had been conducted in Sydney, and that every and all means will be used to break JI's back. After the 1998 African bombings, the little that the US did in response was subject to the domestic putrescence of Washington politics in the late 90s. Imagine if Bill Clinton had launched a major operation in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda at the time; the Republicans in Congress would have gone insane at the opportunity to undermine the President.

Australians cannot allow any such distractions to dilute the reality of the attack against them. Expediently rationalizing it away for any reason only means that they will have to face an even more devastating attack--one much closer to home--in the future.