What a lovely morning. Congratulations to Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill on the provisional agreement with North Korea. We're seeing what a commitment to diplomacy can achieve. Also, congratulations to Secretary Condoleezza Rice. We're seeing what a Secretary of State with influence in an administration can achieve; the Vice President wasn't able to get John Bolton in to sabotage process while the President indulges in what I've called "tough guy poseur." See this previous post. (The White House hardliners are less concerned with solving the problem than with appearing non-Clinton in any agreement with North Korea; see this and this.)
Text of the agreement from the Associated Press.
New York Times:
North Korea agreed to end its nuclear weapons program this morning in return for security, economic and energy benefits, potentially easing tensions with the United States after a three-year standoff over the country's efforts to build atomic bombs.
The United States, North Korea and four other nations participating in nuclear negotiations in Beijing signed a draft accord in which Pyongyang promised to abandon efforts to produce nuclear weapons and re-admit international inspectors to its nuclear facilities. Foreign powers said they would provide aid, diplomatic assurances and security guarantees and consider North Korea's demands for a [light-water nuclear reactor].
The agreement is a preliminary one that would require future rounds of negotiations to flesh out, as it does not address a number of issues, like timing and implementation, that are likely to prove highly contentious. China announced that the six nations participating in the talks would reconvene in November to continue ironing out the details.
Keep in mind this is still a provisional agreement, that could erode if North Korea starts re-defining concepts or making new demands. That is their standard style, so long as they think they can gain additional concessions. (Unfortunately for them, while their nuke program gets everyone hot and bothered, it is so unpalatable that as a bargaining chip it is all-or-nothing; hence, there aren't many separate increments for them to give in to and then go back on.)
Progress in the North Korean talks could give the United States and European countries some diplomatic momentum in their negotiations with Iran over that country's nuclear weapons program, which is not considered as advanced as the North Korean one.
More generally, it would appear to increase support for people inside the Bush administration who favored pursuing laborious negotiations with the North Koreans. Hardliners in the administration and in Congress had raised questions about the usefulness of negotiations with the country, which they have argued has no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons.
And they will point out that this remains a provisional agreement that the North Koreans may start thwarting in the future. The most nebulous point may also be the most important:
Most pointedly, the agreement finesses the North Korean demand that proved the biggest stumbling block in the latest round of talks -- its condition that the outside world provide a light-water nuclear reactor that it says it will use to produce electricity. The issue is left essentially unresolved, potentially leaving both sides to claim that their views prevailed.
The agreement states that the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea will discuss providing North Korea with a light-water reactor "at the appropriate time." Appropriate is not defined in the text, leaving open the possibility that North Korea will continue to insist on receiving that concession as a first step before it gives up its nuclear weapons.
A senior American official said all the other parties made clear to North Korea that "the appropriate time" would come only after North Korea rejoined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and re-admitted nuclear inspectors. He added that North Korea would not be able to achieve those goals until it dismantles its nuclear program.
There's the rub: the sequence of implementation, which also gives the North Koreans the scent for additional concessions in the offing. The LA Times:
The fourth round of talks followed what has become a familiar pattern in tortuous negotiations with North Korea, with a breakthrough coming just as it seemed the negotiators were about to throw up their hands and walk away. Earlier in the day, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator, described the talks as at an "endgame," and the parties as ready to go home.
The key sticking point had been what type of civilian nuclear program North Korea would be allowed to keep after dismantling its weapon-making facilities. The United States readily acceded to Pyongyang's demands to use a small research reactor to produce radioactive isotopes for medicine and agriculture, but vetoed the idea of a light-water reactor — a type less easily adapted to weapons production — for electricity.
The parties got around this hurdle by agreeing to "discuss at an appropriate time" the building of a light-water reactor for North Korea, according to the statement.
In a shorter piece, the Washington Post styles it a victory for host China, with no analysis of the factions within the White House.
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